Iran War May Ignite Middle East Market Share Race, But Not Yet
Oil traders fear prolonged supply disruptions as tankers avoid the Strait of Hormuz and Brent crude rises to $77 a barrel, Reuters reported.
- President Donald Trump confirmed the ceasefire with Iran is dead after renewed strikes, sending Brent crude prices to $77 a barrel as tankers now avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
- Oxford Economics analyst Ben May noted the conflict is "eerily similar" to Trump's previous trade war with China, with deep distrust between the United States and Iran making escalation inevitable.
- While Markets remain volatile, Oxford Economics maintains a baseline forecast of $73 per barrel by end of Q3, monitoring whether current tensions mirror the "Phase One" trade agreement cycle.
- Speculation regarding OPEC stability has intensified as the UAE considers exiting to boost production, while other Gulf members express frustration with Saudi Arabia's output restraint policy.
- Current developments increase the risk of sustained disruption, though it feels too early to conclude that a major and sustained surge in Oil prices is more likely than not.
11 Articles
11 Articles
Iran War May Ignite Middle East Market Share Race, But Not Yet
When the UAE said it was leaving OPEC so it could boost production as much as it wanted, it sparked speculation, yet again, that OPEC was falling apart. The peace deal between the United States and Iran was a done deal in the eyes of oil traders, and the race for market share was on. Then the missiles started flying again, the U.S. president said the ceasefire is dead, and long-term oil disruption in the OPEC heartland came to the fore. Reuters’…
U.S.-Iran talks are 'eerily similar' to Trump's bumpy China dealings in his first term, says top economist—don't rule out further oil price spikes
It seems U.S.-Iran negotiations aren’t going as planned for either side, with fresh hostilities flaring this week, sending oil prices higher once again. For analysts, the question is whether this is the tried-and-tested White House method of pressure and de-escalation, or whether the conflict is spiraling.At the time of writing, Brent crude is back up to $77 a barrel—significantly down from the May high of $113 but still elevated compared to Feb…
Oil prices surged when Trump said the ceasefire was over. A “risk premium” according to commodities analyst Christian Kopfer. – The market has a pretty good memory of what
The price of Brent’s barrel for delivery in September rose by 5.2% on Wednesday, to $78.02, in London’s futures market, after US President Donald Trump announced the end of the ceasefire with Iran. North Sea oil, of reference in Europe, added $3.86 to the closing of Tuesday, when it ended at $74.16. The oil surge responded to increased geopolitical uncertainty, after Trump assured that the ceasefire was over, which revived fears of possible disr…
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