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China’s Growing Gap to Paris Pledge Threatens Meeting of Climate Targets

  • China’s CO2 emissions declined by about 1% over the past year, marking the first sustained drop led by increased clean power generation in early 2025.
  • This decline follows rapid renewable energy investments and new pricing policies introduced in June, which end coal-pegged price guarantees and require direct contract negotiation for wind and solar projects.
  • In March 2025, clean energy installations surged with solar capacity increasing by 23 gigawatts and wind power by 13 gigawatts, marking respective rises of 80% and 110% over previous March records as projects expedited completion ahead of upcoming policy deadlines.
  • In 2024, China’s carbon intensity decreased by 3.4%, a rate insufficient to meet the intermediate targets set for 2025 and 2030, leaving the country notably behind its Paris Agreement goals despite reductions in emissions from the power sector.
  • China’s future emissions trajectory will be shaped by the priorities set in its upcoming five-year plan and the accompanying economic policies, which will determine whether the current momentum in clean energy leads to lasting structural reductions or remains susceptible to rebounds driven by stimulus measures.
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Carbon Brief broke the news in on Wednesday, May 14, 2025.
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