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China crude steel output hits seven-year low in 2025 despite record exports

China's steel output fell 4.4% to 961 million tons amid weak demand and property crisis, while aluminum production rose 2.4% to a record 45 million tons, officials said.

  • On Jan 19, National Bureau of Statistics reported China produced 960.81 million tons of crude steel in 2025, the lowest output since 2018 and below 1 billion tons.
  • A prolonged property slump forced a protracted property-market downturn that reduced construction demand and squeezed Chinese steelmakers' profitability, with steel reinforcing bars' share falling to 13% from 23% in 2019.
  • For December, data showed a seventh consecutive monthly decline as output fell to 68.18 million tons, while steel exports rose to a record of just over 119 million tons, mainly flat steel.
  • Demand linked to the energy transition helped Chinese aluminum producers climb output 2.4% to 45.02 million tons last year, exceeding the 45-million-ton capacity cap and aiding energy transition sectors.
  • Regulators plan to continue curbing crude steel output from 2026 to 2030, with Ge Xin forecasting a roughly 3% fall in 2026 while China Iron & Steel Association shows daily production near 2 million tons.
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Caixin Global broke the news in on Sunday, January 18, 2026.
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