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Tropical Storm Could Form in the Gulf This Week

The system has a 40% chance of forming in 48 hours and could bring several days of heavy rain and flooding to the Gulf Coast.

  • The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance over Mexico that could become a "short-lived tropical storm" by Wednesday or Thursday as it moves into the northwestern Gulf.
  • Currently a trough of low pressure over northeastern Mexico, the system remains inland but will encounter marginally conducive conditions upon re-emerging over the northwestern Gulf late Tuesday or Wednesday.
  • Regardless of tropical formation, residents across southern and eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi should prepare for intense rainfall that could produce "widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding."
  • Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required as early as Tuesday, with gusty winds and coastal flooding possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast.
  • If the system develops, it would be named "Arthur," the first storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts will be below-normal with 8 to 14 named storms.
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Bias Distribution

  • 67% of the sources are Center
67% Center

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The Florida Times-Union broke the news in Jacksonville, United States on Monday, June 15, 2026.
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