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Canada’s provinces contend with fresh shocks ahead of 2026 budget season

Desjardins highlights improved provincial fiscal outlooks due to GDP revisions, diversified trade, and tariff reductions despite ongoing U.S. trade tensions and energy risks.

  • This week, as provincial budget season begins, provinces confront fresh shocks, with British Columbia kicking off Tuesday and Alberta next week.
  • CUSMA's scheduled review this year suggests U.S. trade tensions could reach a tipping point, while renewed diplomacy with China could reduce tariffs benefiting Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the Maritime provinces.
  • Sharp tariffs have hit Ontario steel and automaking and Quebec aluminum sectors, though CUSMA exemptions have lessened impacts, while increased trade could shift exports through B.C. ports.
  • Some provinces' fiscal outcomes vary, with most near 2025 budgets while energy‑producing provinces lag; Alberta enters 2026 with perhaps the cleanest fiscal position after cost‑cutting.
  • On Tuesday, StatCan's historical GDP revisions raised 2022 and 2023 estimates, helping provinces prepare for rosier fiscal outlooks in the coming weeks.
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Canada's provinces contend with fresh shocks ahead of 2026 budget season

The outlook for Canada's provinces is difficult to chart but some surprising resilience to U.S. trade pressures and historical revisions to economic data have most provinces on better footing heading into the 2026 budget season, argues a new analysis from Desjardins.

·Kelowna, Canada
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Prince George Citizen broke the news in Prince George, Canada on Tuesday, February 17, 2026.
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