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UK's OBR publishes economic outlook ahead of Reeves' budget speech
The Office for Budget Responsibility's early release of forecasts caused market shifts and revealed tax rises of £26 billion by 2029, prompting an ongoing investigation.
- On Wednesday the Office for Budget Responsibility unexpectedly published its November 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook online, making the full forecast available before Reeves's 12:30 p.m. Commons speech.
- The OBR apologised and described the release as a technical error, launching an investigation after its forecasts appeared more than 30–40 minutes early ahead of Reeves's Budget speech.
- The leaked forecast from the OBR lists measures including tax rises of £26b by 2029-30, a threshold freeze raising £14.9 billion, and the removal of the two-child benefit cap costing £3 billion, according to Reeves.
- Broadcasters pulled away from PMQs as gilts moved sharply, with borrowing costs falling and Conservative MPs demanding an investigation into the "unprecedented" leak on Wednesday.
- The OBR now forecasts growth of 1.5% this year while trimming medium-term growth projections, widening government borrowing headroom to £22 billion and adding 780,000 basic-rate, 920,000 higher-rate, and 4,000 additional-rate taxpayers by at least 2028/29.
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Total News Sources47
Leaning Left10Leaning Right5Center23Last UpdatedBias Distribution61% Center
Bias Distribution
- 61% of the sources are Center
61% Center
L 26%
C 61%
13%
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