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Lula and Bolsonaro Deadlocked as Vote Nears

  • On Monday, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie for a simulated runoff, with Lula receiving 46% support to Bolsonaro's 45%.
  • If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote on October 4, the top two candidates advance to an October 25 runoff. Lula currently leads at 40% versus Bolsonaro's 37%, down from a previous 42% to 37%.
  • Conducted from September 18 to 20, the survey of 2,006 people includes first-round candidates Augusto Cury at 6%, Ronaldo Caiado at 5%, and Renan Santos at 3%.
  • A September 14 survey showed Lula leading Bolsonaro 47% to 46%, but the current 46% to 45% advantage remains within the survey's 2 percentage point margin of error.
  • Next month's election occurs amid a simmering Supreme Court crisis, with the October 4 first round determining whether the race advances to an October 25 runoff.
Insights by Ground AI

20 Articles

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The petist had downward oscillations in comparison with the previous week's scenarios, but he follows numerically ahead of the main opponent

·São Paulo, Brazil
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A September 14 poll showed Lula leading Bolsonaro by 47% to 46%.

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Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain statistically tied in a hypothetical second-round election scenario ahead of the presidential race… Brazil: Lula's one-percentage-point lead over Bolsonaro in runoff election shows new poll - ΙΝΑΦΤΕΜΟΠΟΡΙΚΙ

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Research BTG/Nexus showed maintenance of the scenario of a possible second round between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro

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Bias Distribution

  • 34% of the sources lean Left, 33% of the sources are Center, 33% of the sources lean Right
34% Left

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Metrópoles broke the news on Monday, September 21, 2026.
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