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Brazil's Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro seen tied in presidential run-off, poll shows
A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied at 46% in a run-off with a ±2% margin of error and 7% undecided voters, signaling a tight race.
- On Monday, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro tied at 46% in a potential presidential run-off for this year's election.
- Seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, the 80-year-old Lula faces a challenge from Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro who endorsed his candidacy in December.
- In simulated first-round scenarios, Lula would take between 39% and 42% of the vote, while Bolsonaro tracks between 38% and 39%, with about 7% of respondents favoring neither candidate.
- Markets have tracked polls closely since imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son in December, causing Brazil's currency and equities to slide amid the political uncertainty.
- Brazilian elections require a second-round vote if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes, a pattern since 2002. Nexus surveyed 2,006 people between March 27-29 with a 2-percentage-point margin of error.
6 Articles
6 Articles
Brazil's Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro seen tied in presidential run-off, poll shows
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are seen tied in a simulated run-off for this year's presidential election, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed on Monday.
Lula (PT) and Fl vio Bolsonaro (PL) appear empathized in hundreds of first and second rounds tested in the first round of research BTG/Nexus for the election as president of Rep blica. Read more (03/30/2026)
The rise of Nexus Research and Intelligence in partnership with the Pactal BTG, released on this Tuesday (30) points to a strong polarization scenario in the presidential debate of 2026, with current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) empathized in the second round and technically empathized in the first round, in different simulations. In the second round, Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro scenarios appear emp…
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