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Brazil Stocks, Currency Rise After Bolsonaro’s First-Round Upset

  • On Monday, Brazil's real jumped more than 4% against the U.S. dollar after Senator Flavio Bolsonaro outperformed private polls to lead Sunday's first-round presidential election.
  • Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva led a 12-candidate field in a campaign dominated by concerns over cost of living, corruption, and crime, with the senator facing Lula in a runoff later this month.
  • The Frankfurt-listed MSCI Brazil ETF jumped more than 16%, while stock index Ibovespa futures soared more than 8%, as investors reacted to Bolsonaro's pro-market agenda.
  • Analysts expect continued real strengthening into 2027, with Morgan Stanley forecasting the currency could move toward 4.50 in the first quarter of next year.
  • Brazilian intelligence briefed French and German officials last week on alleged U.S. and Russian interference, while Lula allies warned the Trump administration might refuse to recognize a victory.
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ReutersReuters
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regionalmedianews.comregionalmedianews.com
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Brazil's currency, stocks soar after Bolsonaro scores first-round election upset

·London, United Kingdom
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Lean Left

Brazilian reals jump 5% to the dollar, and stocks climb 8% after Flavio Polsonaro's election progress, amid bets on cutting spending and disability and providing more space to cut interest.

Lean Right

The commercial dollar opened up the momentum of Monday, falling by more than 4% and, with this, drilling the barrier of R$ 5 in the open market. The surprising result of yesterday's first round of presidential elections, which showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) for just under two percentage points, fuels the expectation of a change in economic policy and generates an aggressive relief of ris…

·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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moneytimes.com.br broke the news on Monday, October 5, 2026.
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