US Federal Reserve Expected to Hold Rates as Iran War Clouds Inflation Outlook
Bond traders now see nearly a 35% chance of a rate increase as renewed oil and tariff pressures revive inflation concerns, futures data show.
- Federal Reserve officials begin their policy meeting Tuesday, July 28, to determine whether to hold or hike interest rates, as investors have boosted the probability of an increase to 35%.
- Renewed conflict in the Middle East and collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire have sent Brent crude prices back above $96 a barrel, threatening to reverse recent inflation progress.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure to demonstrate inflation-fighting resolve, though BofA and Deutsche Bank strategists remain split on whether a hike or hold better serves policymakers' credibility.
- Joseph Lavorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America, noted that raising rates now might be viewed as less of a "political move" than a hike closer to midterm elections.
- Beyond this meeting, robust AI investment and a strong labor market suggest rates may continue rising, as futures market pricing indicates a 61% probability of at least two quarter-point hikes this year.
25 Articles
25 Articles
The Economic Times
Times of IndiaUS Federal Reserve expected to hold rates as Iran war clouds inflation outlook
The US Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with markets increasingly pricing in a September hike. Persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices and upcoming economic data continue to shape policymakers outlook and strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy.
Time before the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, it is not possible to rule out the chance of an increase in interest rates today. Although the majority expectation is that the Fed funds will be maintained in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, the risk of a tightening in monetary conditions remains relevant — between 35% and 40% — especially in the face of the new rise in oil prices, which brings back to the focus the inflationary risk t…
A hawkish tone from the Fed chief, higher inflation risks and a closed door to market guidance. – These are some reasons why there is a certain risk that the US central bank will raise the key interest rate as early as Wednesday evening, says Mattias Persson, chief economist at Swedbank.
The Fed Looks Set To Hold Rates Steady, But September Is Starting To Look Different
With inflation remaining above target and energy market volatility adding new pressure, investors are increasingly betting that the central bank's could hike interest rates in September.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) celebrates its July monetary policy event this Wednesday. The last pre-Jackson Hole meeting is marked by uncertainty. The market’s difficulty in anticipating the next movement of the organism is met with increasing pressure to retake interest rates after Kevin Warsh’s start-up. This makes the decision one of the most challenged in recent months. Oil prices overshadows a more moderate than expected June inflation data, w…
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