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BOJ to hike rates by June as war-fuelled inflation risks mount: Reuters poll
Nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll expect the Bank of Japan to lift rates to 1.00% by June as war-driven inflation risks rise.
- Nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll predict the Bank of Japan will raise its benchmark rate to 1.00% by end-June, with a hike this month or in June seen as equally likely amid uncertainty over the Iran war.
- Japan imported 94 per cent of its crude oil from the Middle East in 2025, leaving the economy vulnerable to the ongoing Iran war, which has triggered an oil price surge and global supply disruptions.
- A Reuters survey showed 62 per cent of firms are considering price hikes. An official at a transportation company warned of "shortages of crude oil... leading to stalled output at manufacturers and to slower shipments and decreased cargo volume."
- BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed the need for vigilance against war fallout rather than following the central bank's rate-raising script. Thirty-seven per cent of economists selected the second half of 2026 for the next hike, reflecting caution.
- Economists lowered annualised GDP growth forecasts for April-June to 0.4 per cent, though median forecasts show borrowing costs reaching 1.25 per cent in the fourth quarter. Most respondents said stagflation risks remain low or extremely low.
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BOJ to hike rates by June as war-fuelled inflation risks mount: Reuters poll
The Bank of Japan will raise its benchmark rate to 1.00% by end-June, with nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll predicting the move, and a hike this month or in June seen as equally likely amid uncertainty over the fallout from the Iran war.
·United Kingdom
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