US EditionCrypto Asset Manager Bitwise Says Bitcoin Will Break Its Four-Year Cycle in 2026
Matt Hougan of Bitwise expects bitcoin to reach new highs in 2026 with lower volatility and increased institutional investment driven by regulatory progress and market structure changes.
- In a client note late Monday, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said Bitcoin is likely to defy its four-year cycle and reach new all-time highs next year.
- Structural shifts such as reduced leverage and regulatory clarity weaken the quadrennial bitcoin halving’s impact, while Federal Reserve expectations for lower interest rates support a new post-halving dynamic next year.
- Derivatives activity shows heavy put selling creating strong support around $85,000, while call overwrites cap upside near $95,000-$100,000, with Wintermute's Desk Strategist Jasper De Maere saying `Vol is being harvested`.
- Bitwise says the outlook could attract tens of billions of institutional capital as Bank of America now allows advisers to recommend Bitcoin ETFs from its $3.5 trillion in client assets.
- Despite cycle history pointing to a pullback next year, Grayscale Research projects fresh records in the first half of next year, while CryptoQuant data shows long-term holders distributing at high rates and short-term holders pressured since October 30.
10 Articles
10 Articles
Bitwise Predicts Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Break in 2026: A New Paradigm for Crypto Markets?
In a groundbreaking prediction that could reshape the future of cryptocurrency investments, leading crypto asset manager Bitwise has asserted that Bitcoin is poised to break its long-established four-year market cycle in 2026. This bold forecast, made public on December 16, 2025, challenges a fundamental tenet of Bitcoin’s historical price movements, suggesting a maturing market less reliant on its halving events and more influenced by sustained…
Why Bitwise Thinks Bitcoin Will Rally in 2026 Despite the Usual Cycle Crash
What Is Driving Bitwise’s Call for a Break From Bitcoin’s Historical Pattern? Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says bitcoin could set new all-time highs in 2026 despite the asset’s long-running four-year cycle suggesting the opposite. In a note to clients, Hougan pointed to weakening halving effects, expectations for lower interest rates and expanding institutional participation as reasons the cycle may not repeat. Bitcoin is down mo…
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