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Bank of Canada says path for rates hard to predict with increased risks to outlook

The Bank of Canada kept rates at 2.25% amid rising risks from geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions, broadening the range of possible economic outcomes, the council said.

  • On Feb. 11, 2026 the Bank of Canada governing council kept its policy rate at 2.25 per cent last month and said it is difficult to see where interest rates are headed due to geopolitical and trade risks.
  • Heightened uncertainty broadened the range of outcomes, driven by recent geopolitical events, a Canada‑U.S.‑Mexico trade agreement review, and trade disruptions, the Bank of Canada governing council said.
  • The council noted the environment's lack of precedent, saying it was unusually difficult to assign weights and probabilities to risks last month.
  • Officials signalled readiness to respond if the economic outlook changes, with the central bank saying it will continue to monitor risks closely to protect borrowers, savers and financial markets.
  • Next policy attention arrives on March 18, when the Bank of Canada's scheduled interest rate decision could clarify timing and direction as the economy evolved largely as anticipated since its October monetary policy report.
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The Record broke the news in Waterloo, Canada on Wednesday, February 11, 2026.
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