Brazil: Bolsonaro's Lead over Lula Shrinks as Votes Come In
With only 17.22% of polling stations counted, Bolsonaro holds 51.22% of valid votes and Lula has 40.66%, according to the electoral court.
- On Sunday, 4 October 2026, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro leads President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil's partial presidential election count with 10,180,435 votes to 8,080,760, according to the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral .
- Only 17.22% of polling stations had reported as of late Sunday. Southern regions favoring Flavio Bolsonaro tally results faster, while President Lula's northeast stronghold votes are typically counted later, creating the current lead.
- Datafolha's 3 October 2026 poll showed Lula at 45% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 42% with a two-point margin of error. A candidate must secure above 50% of valid votes to win outright; otherwise, the top two meet in a runoff on 25 October 2026.
- Brazil's stock market reopens Monday 5 October for the first market test of investor reaction. Voters simultaneously elected 513 lower house members and two-thirds of the Senate, raising stakes for legislative influence on policy.
- The campaign featured alleged international interference and ongoing investigations into ties between the Bolsonaro family and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The final outcome remains uncertain as the majority of ballots await counting.
112 Articles
112 Articles
The vote for the presidency in Brazil is regarded as a direct election. Currently the votes are counted. Challenger Bolsonaro is ahead - but the results so far point to a final election with incumbent Lula.
Paulo Nogueira, Manuel Castello Branco and Diogo Pasuch analyze the first round of Brazilian presidents and explain what we can expect from the duel that follows between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
A battle is underway between Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula in Brazil's presidential election, with a possible upset in the first round as counting continues. Right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro leads by almost 10 percentage points over outgoing center-left president Lula, with about a quarter of the votes counted after the first round of Brazil's presidential election on Sunday. The son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022) has …
In Brazil, Conservative Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has a lead on Sunday, October 5, 2026 over outgoing left-wing President Lula after more than 90% of the ballots were stripped on the evening of the first round of the presidential election in Brazil. The second round will take place on October 25.
Bolsonaro Takes Surprise Lead Over Lula in Brazil
“Right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro surged to a surprise lead over incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil’s presidential race, a result that if confirmed in final counts would rally markets and position him as the favorite in a runoff later this month,” Bloomberg reports. “Bolsonaro led Sunday’s first round election […]
More than 158 million voters were called this Sunday for the Brazilian elections that will most likely lead to a second round between Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Does Brazil change hands? Does Lula have the fourth term? This Sunday's elections will give clues about the country's future path. Follow here in the Expresso the main news of the day of elections
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