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Asteroid 2024 YR4 Has a 4% Chance of Hitting the Moon. Here's Why that's a Scientific Goldmine

The 4% chance lunar impact could generate a 1 km crater and global moonquake, offering rare data on lunar geology and a meteor shower of up to 20 million meteors per hour.

Summary by Phys.org
There's a bright side to every situation. In 2032, the moon itself might have a particularly bright side if it is blasted by a 60-meter-wide asteroid. The chances of such an event are still relatively small (only around 4%) but are non-negligible. And scientists are starting to prepare both for the bad (massive risks to satellites and huge meteors raining down on a large portion of the planet) and the good (a once-in-a-lifetime chance to study t…

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The event would release a quantity of lunar material equivalent to 20,000 elephants that would reach the Earth's atmosphere.

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Although it poses no threat to Earth, asteroid 2024 YR4 has the scientific community on edge. Its potential impact with the Moon would open an unprecedented window for observing real space collisions and improve our understanding of the Solar System. An artist's illustration of asteroid 2024 YR4 approaching the Moon, with planet Earth observing from a distance. Space has once again delivered one of those stories that blends a bit of suspense, a …

Scientists are monitoring an asteroid that could hit the Moon in 2032. The cosmic impact could send debris flying toward Earth. Is our planet in danger?

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Universe Today broke the news in United States on Tuesday, January 27, 2026.
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