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A US$400,000 Payout After Maduro’s Capture Is Putting Prediction Markets in the Spotlight

The arrest uses longstanding indictments and sanctions to disrupt Iran and Hezbollah’s foothold in the Western Hemisphere, signaling a shift toward non-military US leverage.

Summary by CTV News
Prediction markets let people wager on anything from a basketball game to the outcome of a presidential election — and recently, the downfall of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

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The predictive markets allow people to bet on anything, from a basketball game to the result of a presidential election—and recently, the fall of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—the latter case is attracting renewed scrutiny of this turbulent world of speculative transactions that work 24 hours a day. Last week, an anonymous operator pocketed more than $400,000 after betting that Maduro would soon leave office.

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CTV News broke the news in Canada on Sunday, January 11, 2026.
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