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Analysts Divided on Whether Iran Protests Can Topple Regime

Protests sparked by currency collapse have spread to 185 cities, with over 190 deaths confirmed, challenging Iran's regime amid economic mismanagement and social unrest.

  • On December 28, shopkeepers in Tehran's Grand Bazaar launched protests that spread nationwide and became the largest challenge to the Islamic Republic while being widely broadcast despite internet blackouts.
  • Widespread economic hardship and social strain have fuelled protesters' grievances as anger over regime spending and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' expanded stakes intensified public resentment, analysts say.
  • Iran Human Rights reported a death toll estimate of around 650 people, while Iranian state media documented over 120 security-force deaths; analysts say the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retains roughly 180,000 personnel.
  • Analysts caution that defections remain the pivotal variable, but none are evident yet, while Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders publicly rally behind Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and vow to restore order.
  • Alfoneh argued the IRGC has been weakened by recent regional battlefield losses and the 12-day war, with analysts citing heavy senior-level losses and recent leadership changes consolidating harder security lines.
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Lean Right

Thousands of people have been killed in the repression of the security forces in the major cities of Iran, in what is presented as the biggest popular uprising against the theocratic regime created and imposed by Ayatollah Khamenei almost half a century ago. But the system endures. International analysts believe that it will take more time for popular revolt – and more thousands of victims, soon will begin executions – for the Ayatollah system t…

·Spain
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Lean Left

With gunshots at protesters and Internet blockades Iran's regime clings to power. The population impoverished, foreign political leaders failed, but the elite holds together. These are the reasons.

·Germany
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persuasion.community broke the news in on Wednesday, January 7, 2026.
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