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Canada's pipeline ambitions hinge on uncertain output expansion

Pipeline firms say the projects could add 2.25 million barrels per day, but producers are holding back on new oil sands investment.

  • Pipeline firms are proposing projects to boost Canada's export capacity by 45% by 2035, yet major oil sands producers remain reluctant to accelerate production increases due to ongoing climate policy uncertainty.
  • While executives feel optimistic about Carney's pledges to roll back environmental rules, many negotiated policy changes—including carbon pricing and permitting timelines—have not yet been drafted into final legislation.
  • Building sufficient production to utilize these pipes would require more than $100 billion in capital investment, according to Imperial Oil CEO John Whelan, as producers prioritize shareholder returns over expansion.
  • Suncor Energy and Canadian Natural Resources confirmed this month they are not yet willing to accelerate production, while Enbridge said in July it is postponing plans for a second Mainline expansion.
  • Canada ships 90% of its oil to the United States, and Carney aims to grow exports to help the national economy withstand tariff threats amid global trade disruptions from the Iran war.
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Reuters broke the news in London, United Kingdom on Tuesday, August 18, 2026.
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