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An insider to the Venezuela raid may have scored big on Polymarket

An anonymous trader with a new Polymarket account earned $400,000 betting on the U.S. invasion of Venezuela hours before the raid began, prompting insider trading concerns.

Insider trading on the stock market—that is, buying or selling of a public company’s stocks by someone with access to privileged or secret information—is illegal. But that’s not true of the rash of new, online prediction marketplaces. Polymarket, Kalshi, and a number of lesser-known sites allow users to essentially bet on news and events using cryptocurrency, and these markets are largely unregulated. Related: Gamblers on Polymarket predicted th…

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New York Magazine broke the news in New York, United States on Friday, January 9, 2026.
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