In the Late Middle Ages, the western Baltic herring fishery played a central role in Europe. Salted herring was the basis for welfare and political power. We make use of a 450-year time series of Baltic herring catches (1200–1650), to identify which factors drove the herring catch dynamics during different phases of our time series. By the year 1570, the fishery suddenly collapsed, causing large-scale dislocations in trade, with major social and…