US Edition
Drake Maye’s Super Bowl MVP Odds Are Now Paying DOUBLE Sam Darnold’s—Does that feel...odd?
Sam Darnold has a 45% chance and Drake Maye 27% to win Super Bowl MVP on Kalshi, where market-driven odds differ from traditional sportsbooks.
- On February 8, 2026, Kalshi markets list Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold at 45% and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye at 27% for Super Bowl MVP.
- Market observers note quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl MVP most often, including three years running, which explains market preference for signal-callers Darnold and Maye despite some statistical projections favoring Maye.
- DraftKings lists Darnold at +120 and Maye at +240, while projection models show Maye at 231 passing yards and a 25% rushing touchdown probability versus Darnold's lower rushing impact.
- Traders can move Kalshi prices as they buy event contracts, with a $0.15 contract implying a 15% chance and 100 contracts yielding $85 profit, involving legal risks.
- Market-Driven pricing on prediction platforms creates room for value-seeking bettors and long-shot players as New England Patriots’ improbable Super Bowl run sharpens the upset storyline.
11 Articles
11 Articles
Drake Maye’s Super Bowl MVP odds are now paying DOUBLE Sam Darnold’s—does that feel...odd?
As the sun rises on Super Bowl Sunday, February 8, 2026, a massive narrative gap has opened up in the betting markets. While the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks prepare to clash at Levi’s Stadium, the odds for Super Bowl LX MVP suggest a lopsided affair that doesn’t quite align with the statistical projections.
Curran: Slighted for MVP, Maye's legs may carry him to a bigger prize
Drake Maye didn’t win the MVP on Thursday night. I suspect on Sunday night, he’ll show everyone why he should have. His legs. His gams. His getaway sticks. Myriad statistical reasons explain why Maye was the most valuable player in the NFL in 2025. First, his team went from four wins last season to 17 this year and (perhaps) counting. They won the not-very-daunting AFC East. Matthew Stafford’s Rams went from 10-7 to 12-5 and finished third in th…
Super Bowl MVP award: Prediction market trading on the winner
As we count down to Seahawks vs. Patriots on Sunday night, the matchup is being dissected from every angle imaginable. One player is about to rise to the occasion more than the others. That player will exit Levi’s Stadium as a Super Bowl MVP award winner.
Coverage Details
Bias Distribution
- 57% of the sources are Center
Factuality
To view factuality data please Upgrade to Premium
