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2027 Social Security raise pegged between 3.2% and 3.6%
Following July inflation data, the Senior Citizens League lowered its 2027 Social Security COLA forecast to 3.6% on Wednesday, down from 3.8%, while AARP and analyst Mary Johnson also adjusted estimates downward.
The annual COLA calculation relies on Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers data from July, August, and September, automatically tying benefit increases to inflation without discretionary adjustment.
A 3.6% adjustment would increase the average retired worker's monthly benefit by $69.75, though rising Medicare Part B premiums will offset some gains next year.
The League reports that roughly 44% of seniors rely on Social Security for all income, and recipients have lost 13.7% of buying power since 2016 due to CPI-W formula limitations.
With August and September CPI-W readings pending, the Social Security Administration will finalize the official COLA on October 14, when the adjustment takes effect with January 2027 benefits.