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2026’s elections could test how heavy trading on prediction markets affects races and results

Election-Season trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket is surging, prompting states to fight the platforms, which they characterize as unlicensed casinos amid concerns about high-stakes odds affecting American democracy.
Administrators fear pervasive financial incentives might damage confidence in elections if Americans believe traders are influencing outcomes, leading half the states to maintain statutes that broadly ban betting on elections.
On Aug. 31, Kalshi issued a three-year suspension to Republican North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout for trading on her own race, reflecting insider trading concerns.
Maryland State Board administrator Jared DeMarinis and Delaware County elections director Jim Allen are seeking to prohibit election workers from betting on races as courts weigh litigation regarding state regulatory authority.
Kalshi and Polymarket officials contend their activities constitute hedging rather than gambling, citing research showing markets correlate strongly to outcomes, with events given a 60% chance occurring nearly 60% of the time.

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Midterm elections shaping up as big business for gamblers in the rough and rowdy world of prediction markets

“This is a troubling trend that election administrators across the nation must deal with,” said Jared DeMarinis of the Maryland State Board of Elections.

3 hours ago·New York, United States

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