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Cook Political Report moves 18 House seats toward Democrats

The forecast gives Democrats a path to 224 to 234 seats as five toss-ups move to Lean Democratic and four GOP-leaning races slip.

  • On Friday, the Cook Political Report shifted 18 House race ratings toward Democrats, projecting a pickup of nine to 19 seats that would give the party between 224 and 234 total seats.
  • Republicans hoped massive ad campaigns would damage Democratic candidates and help incumbents separate from President Donald Trump, but analyst Erin Covey wrote the spending 'has yet to move the needle.'
  • Five races previously rated as toss-ups now lean Democratic, including seats held by Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks , Zach Nunn , Ryan Mackenzie , Scott Perry , and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez .
  • Democrats need only 20% of remaining toss-up races to secure a House majority, assuming currently favorable seats break their way, with projections now ranging from 224 to 234 total seats.
  • House GOP leaders acknowledged that redistricting efforts fell short, while polling suggests some voters favor candidates who break from Trump's influence, illustrating persistent headwinds for the GOP.
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  • 40% of the sources lean Left
40% Left

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Political Wire broke the news in New York, United States on Friday, October 9, 2026.
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